Disturbance in Caribbean Sea expected to strengthen into tropical depression

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A tropical wave moving west through the eastern Caribbean Sea is expected to strengthen into a tropical depression in the coming days, the National Hurricane Center announced in a special advisory Sunday.

The wave is one of a quartet of storms that are brewing in the Atlantic, but, because of its location and organization, it poses the greatest imminent threat to land in North and Central America. Currently named Disturbance 1, it was given a 80 percent chance of developing into a named storm in the next five days by the Hurricane Center.

“Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea are beginning to show signs of organization,” the center wrote at 12:10 p.m. Sunday. “Recent satellite-derived surface winds also indicated that a broad low-pressure system has formed in association with the wave.”

Disturbance 1 was carrying a disorganized cluster of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon while it moved west at 15 to 20 mph, according to the Hurricane Center.

Disturbance 1, in the eastern Caribbean Sea, is expected to strengthen into a tropical depression at the beginning of next week. [ National Hurricane Center ]

There is another disturbance with a high chance of formation as of Sunday afternoon — a low-pressure area off the eastern seaboard, near northeast Florida. The Hurricane Center gave the disturbance a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by the end of next week.

The system isn’t expected to pose a threat to Florida, however, according to the Hurricane Center. It most likely will move parallel with the eastern United States while developing, then veer into the open Atlantic Ocean next week.

The Hurricane Center said Sunday that it is also monitoring two other tropical waves — Disturbance 2 and Disturbance 4 — that have a low chance of formation in the next five days. Both are slow-moving systems in the eastern Atlantic, near the coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. Their chance of development over the next five days is less than 30 percent.

Disturbance 2 and Disturbance 4, off the coast of Africa, both still have less than a 30 percent chance of formation in the next five days. [ National Hurricane Center ]

If all four storms are to grow strong enough to be declared tropical storms or hurricanes, they would be named Nana, Omar, Paulette and Rene.

Together with researchers at Colorado State University, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted an “extremely active” hurricane season in the Atlantic this year that would see 11 named storms between June 1 and Nov. 30. This season has already had 13 named storms and is threatening more — all before Sept. 10, which is recognized by scientists as being the climatological peak of the storm season.

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